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GoLearn Forex Analysis 30/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.30, 2009, under daily forex analysis

Moving Averages Are Not So Average by GoLearn Forex

Moving Averages – they are not so average

EUR/USD and USD/CHF

On Thursday of last week we saw the EUR and CHF finally break near term resistance.  The EUR cleanly sliced through 1.50 and took out near term resistance around the 1.5055 handle.  The CHF finally broke parity with the Dollar after struggling for weeks.

The very next day the Dollar was saved by the news coming out of Dubai. Risk aversion was on as traders unwound short Dollar positions to cover themselves.  We discuss Moving Averages a fair amount especially since the 50 SMA has acted as support for such an extended period of time and for a number of currencies such as the EUR and CHF.

The CHF touched .9918 on Wednesday only to give back its gains on Thursday.  In the Chart below notice the CHF low on Friday as fear penetrated the market place.  As a sense of calm returned the CHF was again bouncing off the 50 SMA, as support held again.

INSERT CHART CHF

The EUR easily breached resistance last Wednesday when the DXY hit new lows for the year.  As you can see on the Chart below it closed just below the Fibonacci Retrace level of 76.4%.  The very next day the EUR gave back all its gains as the market was reeling from the news of the day.

As details emerged and fear stirred recent wounds in the market the EUR plummeted again. Notice the level the EUR hit before retracing its losses on Friday.  The 50 SMA again held support for the EUR.

INSERT CHART EUR

The moral here: Do not discount these as just “average” lines.  Even if you question the indicative validity of a moving average the very fact that institutional traders monitor these levels makes them exceptionally important if for no other reason.

Mixed Day for Global Equity Markets After Dubai’s Announcement by GoLearn Forex

It was a mixed day for the Global Equity Markets on Friday following Dubai’s debt default announcement the day before.  The markets in Asia continued to sell off while in Europe they apparently felt the exposure was sufficiently contained.  In the U.S on Friday after returning from Holiday the day prior, it was the DJIA’s turn to take some risk off the table as it closed lower by 154.48 points to 10,309.92 Opening session futures are pointing positive in premarket hours.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Central Bank issued a statement indicating they would offer financing to the local and foreign banks at 50bp over the 3month local benchmark rate.  This facility offered by the U.A.E C.B will ensure liquidity and restore some confidence in the market.

On the economic data docket for Monday we have a number items set to print out of the U.K.  However, forex traders will be analyzing Black Friday sales numbers as well as the ensuing weekend figures.  Currently, net sales figures look to be on par with last year.  Additionally for Monday, Euro-zone CPI will hit the wire as will Canadian GDP.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 30, 2009

EUR     CPI (YoY)      Forecast   0.40%  Previous  -0.10%

CAD    GDP (MoM)    Forecast  0.40%  Previous  -0.10%

USD    Chicago PMI    Forecast  53.00  Previous  54.20

AUD    Interest Rate Decision Forecast  3.75%  Previous  3.50%

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GoLearn Forex Analysis 26/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.26, 2009, under daily forex analysis

Greenback Makes Headlines by GoLearn Forex

The U.S Dollar made headlines yesterday unfortunately for the Greenback it was not positive.  The DXY, an index weighted basket of currencies against that Dollar, hit a low for the year touching just below 74.20 before a mild retreat.  EUR and CHF both took out near term resistance with the EUR touching an intra-day high of 1.5145 and the CHF dropped below Dollar parity to .9920.

Global Equity Markets were mostly up as the DJIA closed its session ahead 30.69 points to 10,464.40 before the U.S Holiday.  Gold struck 1,192 and Oil briefly crosses $78 a barrel before leveling off,  as Crude Oil inventories in the U.S were reported to be on the rise.

There are a number of economic data releases due out in Japan and the Euro-zone.  The ones to watch will be the CPI from the Euro-zone and the Jobless Rate in Japan.  Today is a U.S Holiday, so expect lighter than normal volumes across all markets.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 26, 2009

GBP  CBI Distributive Trades Survey  Forecast  11.00  Previous  8.00

EUR German CPI (MoM)Your browser may not support display of this image. Forecast  0.00%  Previous  0.10%

JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) Forecast   -2.00%  Previous  -2.20%

NZD  Inflation Expectations (QoQ) Previous  2.30%

GoLearn Forex Year End Review

Year End:

Thanksgiving in the U.S marks the beginning of the Holiday Season.  The day after Thanksgiving known as Black Friday marks the commencement of the Holiday shopping season.  Many analysts view this particular season as one of the most important shopping seasons in recent history.  The idea is simple.  If the consumer stays home and sales are down significantly it may be the final nail in the coffin for many retailers who are still struggling from sluggish sales and hard to find credit.

The following are some important economic data releases to watch heading into the final month of 2009.  Economic data releases related to the Consumer, Housing, and the Federal Reserve will capture forex trader’s attention the most.  Let’s take a brief moment and highlight the key releases under those 3 sectors.

Consumer – “Retail Sales” will enable traders to gauge consumer spending and the impact on the retail market and its trickle-down effect.  The “Unemployment Rate” will be a good indicator of whether the consumer will derail, assist, or possibly be neutral in a pending recovery.

Housing – “Home Sales” both new and existing will continue to be very important as this is the sector that nearly caused the financial collapse. As many as 1 in 4 home owners are underwater so it is vital that home sales and home prices stabilize.

Federal Reserve – comments, minutes, and meetings dictate financial policy. Any speculation of a possible rate increase will strengthen the Greenback.  The reason behind why the FED may want or need to raise rates will be secondary to the actual intimation of a hike.

An additional variable to consider heading into year-end will be liquidity.  There are many ingredients that feed into this equation.  Many funds are up huge this year and want to lock in profits for their year-end closing of the books. This is very important given last year’s massive losses. Therefore you can expect typical end of year slack in volume.  Another factor that affects liquidity will be the actual hoarding of cash by corporations and banks in order to shore up balances sheets before they report their financials.  To this effect, we have already seen the 3 month T-Bill turn a negative yield as these institutions sock cash away.

Barring some catastrophic event most analysts believe that the Dollar will continue to depreciate. Here are some suggestions for trading the market.  Firstly, let’s look at today (Nov. 25th) we had positive prints for Jobless Claims and New Home Sales.  Positive means that things are less negative.  The economy is losing fewer jobs but still not adding any new ones either. The Dollar tanked on the news (see chart below) as its G-10 rivals advanced smartly.

INSERT CHART

Until the news turns truly positive (and not just less negative) it allows traders to take risks.  Traders view the economy as stabilizing but not to the extent that the FED can raise rates.  When data releases are negative the impact is measured in “derailments”.  Derailments are defined as the potential to slow or even reverse a global recovery.  In summary, go short on the Dollar on news which is positive (meaning less negative than the prior month).  Go long the Dollar against the currencies that appreciated the most against it when truly negative data prints.WRCS

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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GoLearn Forex Analysis 25/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.25, 2009, under daily forex analysis

The ’09 Gold Rush Continues by GoLearn Forex

Global Equities Market futures are pointing slightly higher for Wednesday’s open.  The DJIA finished lower after a mixed day on Wall Street, losing 17.24 points to close at 10,433.71.  The Fed conceded in minutes released yesterday that a weak dollar may be fueling unwarranted speculation in the markets and that the weak dollar needs to be monitored for fear of creating inflationary conditions.

The DXY was mixed as it responded to the equity market’s whiplash. The Gold rush of 2009 continues at it made new intra-day highs bouncing off 1,180.20 before closing at 1,169.40.  Oil gave up some ground to close at $76.45 a barrel.

We are expecting lighter than normal volumes today ahead of the U.S Holiday on Thursday although there will be a lot of economic data published tomorrow.  Headline data prints will focus on U.K GDP and in the U.S; Crude Oil Inventories, Initial and Continuing Jobless claims, and New Home Sales.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 25, 2009

GBP GDP (QoQ) Forecast  -0.30%  Previous  -0.40%

USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Forecast  0.80%  Previous  0.90%

USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast  500.00K  Previous  505.00K

USD New Home Sales Forecast    408.00K  Previous  402.00K

EUR, GBP and AUD Support and Resistance by GoLearn Forex

Key Levels of Support & Resistance

EUR, GBP, & AUD

As the market continues its sideways movement it is a good idea to keep cognizant of important key levels of S&R as well as the 50 SMA and 100 SMA.  When markets move sideways for an extended period of time ensuing price action on a breach of major S&R or an MA can be quick, therefore you want to be in a position to execute.

INSERT AUD CHART

AUD key levels of Resistance are as follows; .9300 , .9500, and .9650.

AUD key Support levels are the 50 SMA which is currently at .9038.  The next support level is at .8890 which was the prior low and also represents the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace level going back to July of 2008.

______________________________________

The EUR is in between 2 key levels of Resistance with the lower level handle at 1.4870 and the near term Resistance at 1.5055.  If we break near term Resistance at 55 then we expect the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace level from July 2008, at a handle of 1.5165 to stand as the next key Resistance level.  Looking north just a bit further  1.5345 would represent R4

INSERT EUR CHART

A candle appearing below the Support level of the 50 SMA would signal a Short EUR entry. A very strong Short EUR signal would be a close below 61.8% Fibonacci Retrace level from July 2008, which is perfectly in sync with the prior low at 1.4621

GBP is sitting between 2 near term Resistance levels.  We have R1 at 1.65, R2 at 1.66 and R3 at 1.70. the 100 day MA is sitting at 1.6404 and in line with the important Fibonacci Retrace level of 38.2% from November of 2007.

INSERT CHART GBP

When a 100 SMA is above a 50 SMA, as it is with the Cable, it is usually indicative of a falling price environment.  A close below the 50 SMA,currently at 1.6340 would generate a near term Short Pound entry.  The next level of Support at S2 is 1.6130.  A breach of S2 would more than likely send us south of 1.60.

The longer price spends consolidating between 2 points the more price action we expect to see when a breakout finally occurs. It is analogous to a spring placed in a box.  The longer the spring and the more coils one forces into a confined space the more resistance the spring builds.  Conversely, a short spring in the same space has less potential energy.  Break open the box and the larger spring is going to move quicker and further than the smaller spring.  Therefore the longer we consolidate price into a range the more price action we expect to see when it finally breaks key levels of Support and Resistance.

GoLearn Forex.net Optimizes Social Networking to Reach Out to Forex Traders

By utilizing such tremendously popular social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook, GoLearnForex is reaching forex traders with important educational tools.

Newly re-launched forex educational portal, GoLearnForex.net is reaching out to traders through social networking.  Sites such as Twitter and Facebook are valuable social networking sites for millions of users worldwide.   Members of these popular social sites connect with friends, do business and participate in other social causes and groups via these platforms.

There is a growing presence of forex trading communities on these networking portals and GoLearnForex is reaching out to share their mission of educating those who participate in the foreign exchange market.  Highly trained financial analysts provide unique analysis daily that GoLearnForex seeks to share with traders of all backgrounds.

“Without the proper education forex can become a negative investing experience for traders,” shared Michael Law, editor of GoLearnForex.net.  “We want to empower those seeking a profit in forex to really reap the full benefit of the largest market in the world.”

Communities of “friends” and “followers” that utilize GoLearnForex range from all types of traders and are located all over the globe.  You can find GoLearnForex on Twitter and Facebook under the username “GoLearnForex.”

About us:

GoLearnForex.net was created in 2006 by a team of Forex professionals to offer traders a one-stop shop for all their Forex needs. The portal offers the latest up-to-the minute technical and fundamental analysis from some of the leading providers around, as well as relevant forex related news, and directories of brokers, fund managers , software and education providers.

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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GoLearn Forex Analysis 23/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.23, 2009, under daily forex analysis

GBPUSD – A Closer Look by GoLearn Forex

GBP/USD:

Range bound trading continues.  It is especially obvious when MA is moving horizontal.  Notice on the daily Cable chart below that the 50 SMA has been horizontal since late July while the 100 SMA turned horizontal in late September.  The 100 SMA is above 50 SMA which is typical of a falling price environment. Additionally, the last time a complete candle appeared below the 50 SMA price fell an additional 4.54%.

INSERT CHART

If you have been trading support and resistance then you have been very successful recently. The yellow rectangular area indicates upper level resistance. Those who trade pure reversals would look to make short entries there.

Point “A” defined our first high in the range.  We make Point “A” the first level of resistance, R1.  Points “B” & “C”encroach but never breach R1.  These would become Reversal Trades 1 & 2.  Point “D” breaches R1 before retracing. Points “E”, “F” and “G” look similar to  “A”, “B”, and “C”.  Point “H” breaks resistance before retracing its gains.

For Points “B, C, E, F, and G” if you were trading straight S&R you would have fared very nicely.  However, for Points “D & H” indicated by the red arches you would have mostly likely been stopped out before picking up the reversal.

With proper risk controls traders will minimize their max loss on every position.  A forex trader cannot expect to win on every trade so choosing the best trades and entry points is essential.  With the use of Candle patterns, Momentum indicators and Oscillators a trader can time the entry where the lull in momentum begins (blue vertical lines) which may signal a reversal.  The Chart below uses the MACD with a histogram to demonstrate falling momentum. The histogram more clearly reveals the convergence of the MACD with the Average.  If you wait for 3 full bars with lower highs (red arrows) to form and ensure that price is still at the point of resistance you can avoid tripping a stop loss and possibly end up in another winning forex trade.

INSERT CHART B

Closing in on Official Shopping Season by GoLearn Forex

The DJIA was flat Friday closing the day down just 14.28 points.  The week saw the DJIA gain 9/10th of a percent while most Global Equity Markets finished the week in negative territory.  The Greenback gained as risk was held in check as the DXY closed above 75.57 in the forex market, for the first time since November 12th.

The Kiwi was the big loser, giving up 3.2% and the cable gave up 1.84% after breaking through near term resistance.  The week was marked by global concern over whether the market can sustain their phenomenal 62% gain since the DJIA hit its March lows.  Adding to investors worries will be the lack of liquidity in the market through the remainder of the year.

Monday and Tuesday maybe volatile in the Forex Markets as the U.S has Holiday on Thursday.  Typically and the preceding Wednesday and following Friday are marked by very light volume days.  Friday kicks off the official Holiday shopping season.  On the economic data front Canadian Retail Sales are set to print on Monday and PMI in the EUR zone is due out as well.  U.S Existing Home Sales will print tomorrow and expect that traders will be watching this closely in light of the poorer than expected new home data that came out last week.  A print below expectations should pull even more risk off the table and we would expect the Dollar to strengthen.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 23, 2009

EUR  ECB President Trichet Speaks

CAD  Core Retail Sales (MoM)  Forecast  0.40%  Previous  0.50%

CAD Retail Sales (MoM)  Forecast  0.60%  Previous  0.80%

USD Existing Home Sales  Forecast  5.70M  Previous  5.57M

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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GoLearn Forex Analysis 19/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.19, 2009, under daily forex analysis

Global Equity Markets All Mixed Up by GoLearn Forex

Global Equity Markets were mixed across the board yesterday.  In the U.S, the DJIA recovered most of its losses after losing nearly 100 points following the poorer than expect housing data numbers.  Housing Starts came in at 529k versus expectations of 600k.  Building Permits printed at 552k versus expectations of 580k.  The housing market was the first in the U.S economy to show signs of a bottom.  Fear of further weakness sent the equity markets on a roller coaster ride.

Additionally, CPI came in slightly higher than expected, however, not high enough to draw much concern at this time.  Gold still continues to make new highs after touching an intraday high of 1,152 before closing at 1,144.30. Oil continues to hold firm just under $80 a barrel.  In the Agriculture space, Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans gave up some of their gains from earlier in the week.

The Dollar Index continued to hold firm at just above 75.  The Pound was the big loser on the day giving up nearly a half a percent to the Greenback while the EUR gained almost 6/10th of a percent.  Currencies continue to hold at pivotal levels as momentum to break key Support and Resistance levels has been inconsistent.

Thursday will have a few key data releases that the markets will be watching.  In the U.K, Retails Sales are set to print.  Traders will pay special attention to this release as they look for Global consistency in consumer spending.  In the U.S, Continuing Claims will be published.  Investors want to know on a week by week basis are thing looking up in the labor markets.  In the U.S and Canada, Leading Indicators will print. We will have to see how the markets react following yesterday’s CPI data.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 18, 2009

GBP Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast  0.60%  Previous  0.00%

USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast  502.00K  Previous  502.00K

EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

JPY Interest Rate Decision Forecast  0.10%  Previous  0.10%

You need Forex Training – Here’s Why.

Non professional forex traders often take the plunge into trading forex before taking the time to learn forex and equipping themselves with the knowledge necessary to find success.  Forex trading is business and not like approaching a roulette table and putting everything on red.  Without proper preparation however, many amateur forex traders find themselves in the same sticky situation as a risk-loving gambler at the roulette table.  That is why proper forex training is imperative for attaining lasting achievement in the forex market.

There are a plethora of options for those seeking forex training, however finding the one that is most suitable to you and your training needs may not be simple.  There are a few criteria that a forex training program should offer in order to fully reap the education necessary to truly learn forex.  We will share with you what you should look for in a training program.

There are two kinds of analysis that each trader should implement into his or her daily updates before opening a trade.  A decent forex training program should teach you both the fundamental and technical aspects of trading forex.  Fundamental reports show all of the outside factors that can affect the market, such as politics, economic announcements and many others.  Technical aspects revolve primarily around the interpretation of the data that can assist traders in accurately predicting future trades.  If one of these elements is missing in a forex training program then you should pass as it is not complete.

Along with understanding the different reports available for forex trading, there are a few other aspects that you should take into serious consideration.  Traders must learn money management.  If a trader’s personal finances are in disarray you can’t expect to make intelligent, thought out trading decisions that are free from an emotional connection. Emotional balance is also pertinent for forex trade.  You need a training program that teaches you how to separate emotion from trading and to maintain self-control.

Once you have found the forex educational program that can train you with the necessary skills, then you need to decipher which trading system is the best fit for you.  Find a reputable system and do your research.  Don’t just rely on ads you see online or on the television, find out what other traders are saying about the quality and consistency of each trading system.

Deciding to trade in forex is a lucrative decision that is available to everyone.  Don’t fall into the common pitfalls of many traders, and take the time to educate yourself and prepare for the forex journey ahead.

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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GoLearnForex Analysis 18/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.18, 2009, under daily forex analysis

USD/JPY:

The Yen has lost ground to every other currency in the G-10 except the Dollar, since March of 2009.  The BOJ has always favored a weak currency as it supports their large export business which accounts for over 20% of their GDP.

INSERT CHART a

The Chart above is a daily JPY chart looking back through this past March. Although the Yen trended down it was extremely volatile through August.  After mid August it continued  a less volatile trend towards a handle of 88.00 before retracing to 92.00. Since mid October it has been struggling to breach near term resistance at 88.00.

On the daily JPY chart below you can see we added Bollinger Bands (BB). BB are very good during range trading and very dangerous during trending markets.  BB are best understood  as a mean or avg as indicated by the yellow dotted line.  The red lines represent a standard deviation from the mean. In short you expect price to be somewhere between the 2 red lines.  When price nears one of the bands you expect it to return toward the mean, what traders call a reversal.

INSERT CHART b

Notice that from March through August the same period of time shown on Chart A above that price moves precisely the way we expect with BB.  The green swing line shows price moving from one band to the next. However, towards the end of August price does not move towards the mean as the JPY has started to trend.  This is why BB are difficult to use during trending markets as we do not expect price to move back towards the mean.

There are a number of tools available to you via your charting platforms that can help you isolate when to expect the BB reversal versus a false reversal signal.  On the lower half of Chart b the Relative Strength Index (RSI) helps traders identify when a trend  is strong and may continue.  The red vertical line that runs through the false reversal signal also shows that the RSI indicates we are in the footholds of a strong trend. Typically an RSI descending after breaching 70 (over bought) or ascending after breaching 30 (oversold) indicate a weakening trend.

Currently the JPY is sitting on the lower band of the BB and the RSI reads low in terms of trend strength.  Additionally, the Yen is bumping up against R1 and R2 is fairly close as well.  For now it appears that the trend has slowed.

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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GoLearnForex Analysis 17/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.17, 2009, under daily forex analysis

AUD/USD:

The Aussie continues to strengthen against the Greenback and is now retesting short term resistance at .9343.  The Aussie completed the top portion of a double top (as depicted on the Chart by the 2 white boxes) last week but is on the verge of a breakout.

INSERT CHART

The AUD has been holding support along the 40 SMA since mid March.  The 40 SMA is currently sitting at .9045. A break below support in addition to a close below the previous “higher low” (indicated by the red circle) would be a signal to open a Short AUD position.

For the moment we favor a Long AUD position.  You can see the formation of an ascending triangle (dotted white lines) with the 40 SMA acting as the slope of the triangle.  Anticipated continued weakness in the USD, the AUD’s close tie to commodities, the strength of  Australian economy, the carry trade, and the strong trend on the Chart certainly point towards continued AUD strength.  We are looking to take some profit at .95 and a further position reduction at .98

NZD/USD:

There are quite a few technicals to note on the Kiwi’s most recent price action.  Firstly, similar to nearly all the other G-7’s versus the Dollar the NZD has been trending long and hard.  However, back at the end of October it looked like the trend was about to break.  The Kiwi hit .76 and started to fall as indicated by the 2 orange parallel lines.  The appearance of those line when preceded by a strong trend is called a Pennant.

The 50 day MA has been holding support for the NZD since March.  The Pennant reached the 50 SMA and price bounced off of support.  Near term resistance is just north of .76.  We would maintain a Long NZD position.  Near term PNL could be taken at .76 while we target .78 for more significant profit taking.

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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GoLearnForex Analysis 16/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.16, 2009, under daily forex analysis

EUR Struggles to Break 1.50 Handle by GoLearnForex

EUR/USD:

The EUR continues to struggle to break the 1.50 handle.  Last week, the EUR on a daily chart, completed the formation of a double top just above resistance at 1.50 [shown in the red boxes in the chart below].  The 50 day SMA continues to hold support for the EUR at 1.4764.  We have not had an entire candle appear below the 50 SMA since April, however, we have bounced off this MA support nearly 15 times since then.

INSERT CHART

If an entire candle appears below the 50 SMA that would be a good indication to open a near term EUR short position.  On the flip side if we breach R1 we would resume a long EUR position.  You can also see the formation of an ascending triangle when using the 50 SMA as the slope and R1 as the top side.  Although trading becomes thin towards year end and a a result the market can appear a little more volatile we anticipate the 50 SMA will move in a more parallel form to R1.

GBP/USD:

Last week the Pound broke top side resistance at 1.6750, striking 1.6843 before retracing and barley closing above R1.  The Cable has been moving sideways since June bouncing off S&R with near predictability.  As a trader you want to decipher when the current short term trend near S&R is fading.  It not only allows one to time the market but it also can limit your losses.  By setting Stops just north or south of S&R after a reversal appears to be forming a trader will limit their losses should the actual breakout occur.

INSERT CHART

In order to time the reversal correctly we suggest using candle patterns in conjunction with at least an additional indicator such as an RSI or even a Stochastic oscillator which will highlight over bought/sold points. On the Graph above you can see the candle pattern referred to as a Hangman (red arrow on graph) which indicates a reversal.  On the lower part of the graph you can see the RSI headed down from its near breach of 70. Combine that with price at its current R1 level and you have a nice short entry point.  Remember you limit your risk by placing a stop loss just above your point of entry in case a breakout really occurs.

Dollar Ends Mixed Across G-10 Commodity Currencies by GoLearnForex

The Dollar ended the week mixed across the G-10 with commodity currencies advancing while the remaining G-10 currencies suffered minor losses.  Global Equity Markets finished the week in positive territory although Futures are pointing towards a slightly lower open.

Gold finished the week ahead at 1,118.70 while Oil lost a little over $3 a barrel to close at 76.35. The Bond Market capped a stellar week with the U.S Government auctioning an additional $81 billion in notes and bonds.

In Japan, GDP figures are set to print Sunday night.  Forecasters are looking for a slight increase in Annualized GDP figures.  On the docket for tomorrow we have Retails Sales set to publish in the U.S.  This may be a real market mover, as traders will use this as a barometer for the impact unemployment  will have on the economy.  Additionally, this will shape expectations for the popular Holiday season Forecasts.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 16, 2009

USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast   0.40%  Previous  0.50%

USD Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast  1.00%  Previous  -1.50%

USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net

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GoLearnForex Analysis 12/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.12, 2009, under daily forex analysis

CAD Gains More Against USD Than Other Major Currencies by GoLearnForex

USD/CAD:

Since November 6th, amongst the G-10 the CAD has gained more than any other currency versus the greenback.  The CAD has gained 2.71% through November 11th.  We will present 2 reasons for this move.  The Canadian Dollar lost the most amongst the G-10 in the weeks prior to November 6th.  It began with the BOC cautioning the markets about its remaining tolerance of a strong Canadian Dollar.  That was followed by a couple of poorer than expected economic releases.

The Dollar during that period of time strengthened as well when risk aversion was back.  Doing a straight current price comparison most of the G-7 has since returned to their respective levels prior to the Dollars run.  The only currency that did not retrace most its losses was the CAD. Once the other pairs abutted their support and resistance levels they began to consolidate.  The Canadian Dollar still had further room to appreciate versus it prior loss and it has.

INSERT CHART

The second reason that we alluded to earlier can be seen by the formation of a Descending Triangle.  Trend is clearly still favoring the Canadian Dollar. The bottom line of the triangle represents short term S&R. On the top line, the slope of the hypotenuse, represent the trend.  As price trades with the trend line towards S&R we anticipate a breakout to occur.  You can see that we have just broken below short term S&R, thereby advancing the CAD even further.

Quiet USD Rally as Gold Continues to Climb the Charts by GoLearnForex

Global Equity Markets advanced again on Wednesday.  In the U.S the DJIA closed up 44.29 points to 10,291.26 in lighter than normal volume due to the Holiday.  The Dollar strengthened later in the day after the DXY briefly touched below 75.00 The Sterling came in as the big loser giving up 1.05% to trade at 1.6570, while the CAD advanced again today up nearly .4% to 1.0450.

In spite of the quiet Dollar rally Gold continued its climb to close at 1,118 and a gain of $12.  Investors tend to buy Gold when economic times are uncertain.  The purchase of large amounts of Gold by India and Sri-Lanka last week, in addition to the G-20 summit in which all members agreed to maintain quantitative easing programs for as long as necessary, have led investors to believe Gold will be in demand for quite some time to come. Oil was flat for a second day in a row closing below 79.50.

This week has been light in the way economic releases.  Tomorrow, Australia’s Unemployment figures are set to print.  We would expect that if these numbers underperform that the AUD will lose some of it strength given the current stance of the Australian Central Bank.  In the U.S. Continuing Claims and Initials Claims are due out and although they are a weekly print, it may confirm the dismal employment situation in the U.S.  Traders are looking for any signs that the employment situation is improving and therefore they will be watching these weekly numbers closely.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 12, 2009

EUR Industrial Production (MoM) Forecast  0.60%  Previous  0.90%

USD MBA Mortgage Applications  Previous    8.20%

USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast    512.00K  Previous  512.00K

EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.netNOV11CAD

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GoLearnForex Analysis 10/11/2009

by Trader345 on Nov.10, 2009, under daily forex analysis

EURUSD and Elasticity by GoLearnForex

EUR/USD:

The EUR now looks poised to continue its breach of resistance and head north to 1.5265.  One of the factors that we consider when looking for technical entry and exit points is the speed at which price is moving.

Graphically speaking you can eyeball this by examining how steep a slope is or how long the bars are over a period of time relative to other bars over a similar period of time.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one very common momentum indicator that essentially measures the velocity of price over a period of time.

In the graph below the RSI (lower chart) is considered over bought above 70 and oversold below 30. Between 55 to 70 and the RSI moving up would be an indication of a strong trend.  While the RSI headed down between 45 and 30 indicate a weak trend. Notice on the Chart that the green vertical lines highlight RSI crosses above 70 and they were subsequently followed by a retrace in price as apparent in the upper chart.

I liken this to elasticity.  If you immediately pull a rubber band backwards or forwards it will shoot the opposite direction at a speed in accordance with the pressure you exerted.  However, if you slowly stretch the elastic it can with stand a greater force exerted on it without the need to snap in the opposite direction.  Price behaves in a similar fashion.  Following most significant violent moves in the market there is usually a correction that takes place.  Price was pulled to hard to fast.  This has not been the case with EUR thus far which is why it has been able to use a simple moving average for support.

INSERT CHART

We have noted on several occasions that the EUR is using the 50 day MA as support for its move upwards.  On November 3rd we once again bounced off of the 50 day MA support and we have also retraced the move down after breaking 1.50.  This is another notable, once a psychological level, like 1.50 on the EUR, has been broken it becomes less of an obstacle to price appreciation the next go round and sometimes even acts as a spring board for price.

Gold Continues to Hold on To It’s Strong Position by GoLearnForex

Global Equity Markets rallied hard to open the week.  This follows the G-20 meeting of Governors in which there was universal commitment to keep liquidity flowing until a sense of self sustaining economies return.  This was preceded by the U.S. dismal Unemployment Rate print of 10.2% on Friday. In the U.S today the DJIA was up 203 points to finish the day at 10,226.

On the commodity front Gold showed no signs of letting go of its torrid rise.  Intra-day high for Gold touched 1,111.20 before settling back down to 1,104 a gain of nearly $6.  Oil was up as well today, gaining $1.86 to close at 79.29.

The Dollar was offered broadly across the board today.  The DXY had an intra-day low below 75, but closed the day just above 75.  A close below 74.85 would be a strong bear signal for the greenback and with prices at pivotal handles right now across the G-10 we could see a major dollar slide.

A lot of data due out for Tuesday and aside from CPI in the EUR zone not much is going to firm the dollar.  Although we heard a lot rhetoric from Central Banks last time FX markets were at these levels in attempt to slow the Dollar slide, I do not think CB’s will flood the market with strong dollar talk this time around.

Upcoming Forex Events for November 10, 2009

EUR German CPI (MoM) Actual  0.10% Forecast  0.10%  Previous  0.10%

GBP  Trade Balance Forecast  -6.20B  Previous  -6.20B

EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Forecast  55.00  Previous  56.00

AUD  Westpac Consumer Sentiment Previous 1.70%

Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.netEUR-Nov09

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